Sen. JD Vance of Ohio has had a rough week and a half since he was announced as former President Donald Trump's vice-presidential candidate. While Trump insists he's sticking with Vance, the senator's poor polling combined with Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum has led some to ask: Could Trump replace Vance? And if so, how would it work? For those wondering, the answers lie in recent history and the fine print of Republican Party rules.
It's still technically possible that Trump could choose a new No. 2. But such a decision would have to happen very soon.
The Democratic and Republican National Committees have separate rules governing how they fill vacancies of presidential or vice-presidential nominees. Under Rule 9, the Republican National Committee explains how it fills a vice-presidential vacancy "which may occur as the result of death, declination, or otherwise."
The rule allows the party to reconvene its national convention if it chooses or to move ahead with a vote of the smaller group of Republican National Committee members who would determine Vance's replacement.
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It would be a race against the clock
Time arguably poses more complications than the specific rules, says Amy Dacey, a former CEO of the Democratic National Committee who's now the executive director of the Sine Institute of Policy & Politics at American University.
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"I think sometimes what people forget is that people start voting in September," Dacey told Business Insider. "There's an early vote in some states in September. So this is not just a November election. And the worst-case scenario would be for your nominees not to appear on a ballot in a state."
Crucially, the rule explicitly applies to a scenario in which Vance voluntarily steps aside, says Kenneth Mayer, a recently retired political-science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He told BI there was no precedent for forcibly ripping the nomination away from a vice-presidential candidate after the convention.
Mayer also said impending state deadlines posed a significant issue, and the complications would only snowball once ballots were printed. It would be, he said, "extraordinarily disruptive" both logistically and politically to replace Vance as the vice-presidential nominee.
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Vance has had a rocky start to joining the ticket
Among Vance's biggest problems are his numbers — a CNN polling analysis found he was the least-liked vice-presidential candidate on the heels of their convention since 1980.
In a survey that Punchbowl News conducted at the Republican National Convention, almost 80% of staffers and leaders said they disapproved of the Vance pick. Most of those asked said Trump should have gone with Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia instead.
Though Trump has consistently stated his support for Vance, reports say some in his orbit are questioning whether the Ohioan was a wise pick now that Harris will almost certainly be the Democratic presidential nominee.
Trump has faced similar situation before. In 2020, there were rumors he would replace former Vice President Mike Pence on his ticket. Trump denied those reports. "If I did, that would be a great act of disloyalty because he's been great," he said.
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A representative for Vance declined to comment on the record, and Trump's team didn't immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment.
Trump reaffirmed his support for Vance on Thursday, telling Fox News that Vance was "doing a great job."
"He is fantastic. No, it wouldn't have mattered," Trump said when asked whether knowing about Harris' candidacy would have changed his strategy.
There's been only one modern example of such an extraordinary move occurring
Left unsaid is that if a president or presidential hopeful were to replace their running mate, it would become an immediate scandal, one that risks overshadowing an entire election. Democrats did as much in 1972 when George McGovern dropped his vice-presidential nominee, Sen. Thomas Eagleton of Missouri, after only 18 days together on the ticket.
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Eagleton resigned under pressure after the public found out he'd been treated for depression. The debacle is in part responsible for the extensive vetting process that modern vice-presidential picks endure, as McGovern selected Eagleton at the last minute and with little scrutiny.
Politics and journalism have undergone seismic shifts in the half-century since the Eagleton episode, but a similar level of chaos and speculation would probably arise should Trump make a similar choice.
"Rule Nine and the RNC rules don't cover what the practicality of this would be and how it would affect the Trump campaign," Mayer said. "It would be hugely damaging. It's just hard to recover from something like that."
